With roots back to 1851, Gabriel is today a niche company within the global furniture industry, which throughout the value chain, from idea to furniture user, develops, manufactures and sells furniture fabrics, components, upholstered surfaces and related products and services, through its business areas Fabrics, FurnMaster, SampleMaster and Screen Solutions. Gabriel sells B2B, and is growing with the largest market participants, working closely with leading international manufacturers and major users of upholstered furniture, seats and upholstered surfaces.
Fredag i sidste uge havde vi fornøjelsen at afholde event med Gabriel, hvor CEO Anders Hedegaard Petersen præsenterede regnskabet for 2. kvartal 2024/25, og kom omkring den seneste udvikling i både de fortsættende og ophørende aktiviteter. Fik du ikke set med kan du se optagelsen her.
Gabriel ventes at rapportere tal for 2. kvartal 2024/25 – torsdag d. 8. maj 2025. Dagen efter – fredag d. 9. maj kl. 10.30 har du mulighed for at høre mere om hvordan kvartalet er forløbet. Det sker på et virtuelt live-event, hvor vi har CEO Anders Hedegaard Petersen med fra Gabriel, og foruden en gennemgang af regnskabet, vil der også være tid til spørgsmål fra publikum.
Gabriel delivered better-than-expected Q2 2024/25 results, with growth in continuing operations accelerating to 10.5% y/y, slightly above the top-end of the guidance range. Margins also developed positively, with continuing operations EBIT of MDKK 20.9 H1’24/25, at the lower-end of guidance. Revenue from discontinuing operations declined as unprofitable contracts were terminated, but with a positive EBITDA in Q2’24/25 and growth in Europe. Despite the stronger Q2’24/25 results, risks remain elevated, as we await the conclusions from the forensic investigation into Mexican subsidiary’s accounts, updates from the ongoing carve-out process, and heightened tariff-related uncertainty. The lack of a guidance upgrade also suggests a weaker H2’24/25 is projected, and while the larger European activities should be relatively insulated from tariffs, economic growth risks are elevated. While the Q2’24/25 results support our long-term view that Gabriel is well-positioned to benefit from a broader market rebound given its operating leverage and outperformance in weak markets, we see significant hurdles to overcome in order to de-risk the case. We therefore reiterate our “Reduce” recommendation with a revised price target of DKK 150 per share, raised from DKK 130 previously.
The sweeping tariffs announced by President Donald Trump on 02 April 2025 are reshaping global trade, introducing uncertainty, and with trade barriers likely to drive a negative global growth shock. While tariff negotiations are ongoing and subject to significant change in both directions, Gabriel’s production, particularly in Mexico, could be directly affected, with indirect impacts likely to drive a weaker outlook in H2’2024/25 and into 2025/26. The European market, also the largest market, may be somewhat more insulated against tariff impacts, however, we expect the indirect effects, such as higher lending/mortgage rates, can delay the rebound in the real estate and furniture fabrics market conditions, resulting in greater short-term challenges. The increased macro and policy uncertainty may also present an obstacle in the ongoing carve-out process of FurnMaster, a key driver of near-term uncertainty. Despite the long-term outlook remaining solid, with operating leverage to benefit from an eventual market rebound, the tariff-driven uncertainty lead us to reiterate our Reduce recommendation with a revised price target of DKK 130 per share.
Fredag i sidste uge havde vi fornøjelsen at afholde event med Gabriel, hvor CEO Anders Hedegaard Petersen præsenterede regnskabet for 1. kvartal 2024/25, og kom omkring den seneste udvikling i både de fortsættende og ophørende aktiviteter. Fik du ikke set med kan du se optagelsen her.
På trods af den generelle stabilitet i Q1’24-25-resultaterne ser vi stadig usikkerhed omkring tidspunktet for salget af FurnMaster-enhederne. Lige nu betragter vi carve-out-processen som den vigtigste kortsigtede trigger, der kan reducere risikoen i casen.
Gabriel ventes at rapportere tal for 1. kvartal 2024/25 – torsdag d. 6. februar 2025. Dagen efter – fredag d. 7. februar kl. 10.30 har du mulighed for at høre mere om hvordan kvartalet er forløbet.
Det sker på et virtuelt live-event, hvor vi har CEO Anders Hedegaard Petersen med fra Gabriel, og foruden en gennemgang af regnskabet, vil der også være tid til spørgsmål fra publikum.
Gabriel’s Q1’24-25 results reflected relative stability during a moment of heightened uncertainty. A stable revenue of MDKK 228.1 (MDKK 227.7 Q1’23-24) was slightly below our expectations of +1% growth y/y as positive development in continuing operations was offset by a decline in FurnMaster driven by the restructuring of its Mexican subsidiary. Q1 was the first step towards greater stability, however, uncertainty relating to the carve-out process of FurnMaster remains high, and the range of outcomes is broader than normal. Group EBIT of MDKK 0.3 in Q1’24-25 was below our estimate of MDKK 4.6, impacted by elevated costs relating to restructuring, accounts verification, and carve-out advisory fees. The Q1 results support our view of long-term potential in the company, however, also reinforce our view of greater short-term risk due to the FurnMaster carve-out process. We reiterate our Reduce recommendation with a slightly revised price target of DKK 180 per share from DKK 195 previously.
We estimate a small positive topline growth year-on-year in Q1’24-25 as the stable to slightly improving market backdrop with lower interest rates and inflation, can support a slight positive development in the group despite challenges.